Bon voyage Randall Garrison, hello electoral opportunity

Randall Garrison has announced that he is stepping down as the NDP candidate in Vancouver Centre (read about it here). I do not know much about Garrison, but I do know that he stood almost no chance of winning in Vancouver Centre.  The last two elections the NDP ran much stronger candidates in Vancouver Centre and lost convincingly both times (Svend Robinson in 2006, Kennedy Stewart in 2004).  Hedy Fry looks like she will once again win easily in Vancouver Centre, but this time her main competition likely will come from the Greens who are running one of their deputy leaders, and former leader of the BC Green Party, Adrianne Carr.

What could make the race very interesting, though I doubt it will happen, is if Lorne Mayencourt decides to run for the Conservatives.  I would give Mayencourt no chance of actually winning as a Conservative, but he would have some name recognition and a core group of supporters that could help him to boost the Conservative vote totals.  There may be an election this fall, so the NDP and the Conservatives both have to get busy and nominate candidates for Vancouver Centre. If I were a planner with the NDP I would be looking for someone with a high profile to run in Vancouver Centre.  If Mayencourt does run for the Conservatives then the NDP may suddenly be part of what could be a very close race.

Hedy Fry won 43.8% of the vote in 2006, 15% more than the second place Svend Robinson (NDP, 28.7%).  The Conservatives pulled in 20.5% with a very nice guy in Tony Fogarassy, but ultimately a weak candidate.  The Green Party won 5.8% with Jared Evans, a candidate without any significant experience.

Adrianne Carr immediately changes the dynamic for the next election.  I would guess that she will pull down at least 15% of the vote, maybe more.  Where that extra 10% or so comes from will be harder to figure out, I would think that most of it would come from the NDP but that some amounts could also come from the Liberals and the Conservatives.  Carr by herself will not bring in enough votes to unseat Hedy Fry, but if Mayencourt were to also run, and pick up 5-10% more of the vote for the Conservatives, then the vote would get quite close.  If Mayencourt could win say 28%, Carr 15%, that leaves 55% or so to divide between the Liberals and the NDP (knock off a couple percent for all the fringe parties).

If the NDP were to run a strong candidate, and manage to pick up just a few percentage points over 2006 (say 31%) then they could conceivably win in Vancouver Centre.  The problem with the math I have been using is that anyone could conceivably win.  Hedy Fry needs to fall a long way to lose, but she could.  The Conservatives could even wind up winning with around 30% of the vote if they go with a strong local candidate like Lorne Mayencourt.  Adrianne Carr might do better than the 15% I am going with.  The main point is that Vancouver Centre could be a very interesting race this fall (or in 2009 if we get that far) if the right people run for the Conservatives and the NDP.

I would hope that the NDP and the Conservatives see the potential in Vancouver Centre and nominate strong candidates. Being that the riding covers downtown Vancouver, it is an important media market, one that grabs quite a few headlines, meaning that even in a losing cause it is important for all the federal parties. I just want some excitement in my riding, rather than the usual coronation of Hedy Fry that has been taking place over the past 5 elections.